Archives - Statistics





As Florida goes, so goes the nation?

Just seven days after leaving hospital, Donald Trump touched down last Monday evening in the muggy swampland of Sanford, Florida, in the first jolt of a final defibrillation to save his presidency. Following steroid treatment for...



Can Democrats avert the Trumpocalypse?

Review: David Frum, Trumpocalypse: Restoring American Democracy (HarperCollins, 2020) There are 99 days to go until the 2020 United States presidential election. Having privileged economic imperatives over public health, many...



Predicting the 2019 UK General Election

Using a lethal combination of polling data, random number generation and wishful thinking, I have devised a seat-by-seat prediction for Thursday’s general election. This is a critical poll for the direction of the United Kingdom:...



My 10 Book Countdown for 2019

10. Serhii Plokhy, Chernobyl: History of a Tragedy (Penguin Books, 2019) The central message of Serhii Plokhy’s sensitive account of the April 1986 Chernobyl reactor explosion is simply how avoidable it was. Drawing extensively...



First Past the Post politics needs to go: here are the alternatives

The ongoing Tory leadership contest epitomises the democratic deficit in this country. As I detailed in my last blog, a dedicated selectorate of about 150,000 pensioners – perhaps 0.3% of British adults – will choose the next...