British broadcast media must take an urgent lead on climate awareness


From Wikimedia Commons.

How many people in the UK know that the hottest temperature ever reliably recorded on Earth occurred on Tuesday? Pending verification, the mercury at the Furnace Creek Ranch in Death Valley, California, reached 54.4C (130F) – smashing the August record (Kuwait, 2011) by 1.1C and, according to The Guardian, interfering with the electronic temperature display which defines this notorious hotspot.[1] But beside the most environmentally “woke” of press, where was the coverage of yet another milestone in our accelerating path to climate crisis?

You will find the story if you scroll down the BBC website far enough. Reassuringly, the words “Climate Change” are tagged. But they are not mentioned once in the article, which is written as a quirky tribute to an adventurer’s paradise – Death Valley – where no human could expect to survive for very long. There is no meaningful attempt to connect this record to any number of recent climate anomalies. 30C across Siberia in early summer wildfires. Record drought covering 29% of the US land area. 36C in Southern England on consecutive Fridays, the first, on 31st July, being the third hottest temperature ever recorded in the UK. The tone of reporting from our public service broadcasters (BBC, ITV, Channels 4 and 5) is one of bemused consternation, more befitting of the tabloids’ perennial ‘UK set to be hotter than Ibiza in 35C scorcher’ than the responsibilities required by their Royal Charter. The BBC seems so concerned to offload the issue that discussion of “climate change induced by human industrial patterns” is heavily caveated: ‘the Met Office thinks this is likely caused by…’. Weather forecasters choose safer terrain, with pictures of dogs sunbathing and crowded beaches, which at least allows them to get in a condescending warning about social distancing.

The Furnace Creek record comes a week after 33C+ was recorded in London for six consecutive days, the longest stint in the UK since 2003. To use the imagery of our esteemed Prime Minister, climate change is an ‘invisible mugger’, every bit as pernicious as COVID-19. Viewing the issue through the lens of British exceptionalism – where extreme weather is a novelty which happens to Other Countries – is not good enough for the PSBs from which we expect high-quality and challenging content. Climate change needs to be tackled from the bottom up – by individuals and businesses – as much as from the top down – by government – which means that our broadcast media must take ownership of broadening awareness. This is underscored by the fact that older people tend to be more sceptical about the effects of climate change (see below) and also consume more conventional television, as opposed to streaming and video-on-demand. The average age of BBC viewers is 61. PSBs must change the language and tone of weather/climate reporting, widening the lens more often beyond the British Isles to understand the interconnected global context.
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We could be forgiven in the cool, rainy British Isles for thinking that a warmer climate would be a boon to our economy and quality of life, not least since the pandemic has made domestic tourism the only option for many. Having visited a grey, 14 degree Edinburgh over a mid-August weekend, I have sympathy with this position. But our temperate, relatively stable climate requires little of the weather-proofing innovation seen in other nations. We are underprepared for storms and low-lying flooding in winter; agricultural disruption, challenges to workplaces without air conditioning and the “urban heat island” effect in summer. Temperatures in London did not fall below 20C – a so-called “tropical night” – for three consecutive days from 8th August, and on 25th June. Climate migration will place enormous pressures on our borders which, recent events suggest, we do not have the political empathy or long-term policy strategy to process.

The British media attitude towards extreme weather seems to extend from our inward-looking temperament. Even the weather map itself – where frontal systems disappear as they reach continental Europe, and only ITV gives any coverage of Ireland – betrays a mentality that events in other countries need concern us as little as possible. In the tabloid press, extreme heat and cold becomes a competition with a location selected from a wheel of British holiday destinations. Climate is still seen by many as a left-wing Opinion issue, undermined in its seriousness by the hypocrisies of the Duke and Duchess of Sussex, Extinction Rebellion and Emma Thompson’s transatlantic jet trip to attend their protest. This prevents engagement with an increasing number of “unusual” British weather phenomena with every passing year.[2] Even on PSBs – with the exception of the more liberal internationalist Channel 4 – global weather events are given cursory coverage and there is little sense of connectivity. There is a condescension towards extremes as flashes in the pan, rather than the humility to accept that they can, and will, happen here.

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated how quickly the British public can adapt to an emergency situation. This is in large part because the crisis was appropriately pitched and emphasised constantly by the broadcast media. Couldn’t this lesson be applied to climate change? The first step would be a more rigorous global survey of extreme events and focus, by weather presenters, on the novelty and historical contexts of current forecasts. The problem, however, is that climate change is a much longer-term, rear-view-mirror problem than the coronavirus (probably). Apocalypse fatigue is possible, especially when we see such episodic extreme weather. The balance PSBs must provide between alarmist editorialisation and consciousness-raising education on climate issues is delicate.

Nevertheless, my sense is that PSBs are too comfortable hiding behind the need to impartially represent “both sides”, rather than engaging with the specifics of climate science. In 2018, the BBC produced some guidance notes for reporters to contextualise extreme weather events, which make for mixed reading.[3] While there is the basic acceptance than climate change is happening (we are thankfully beyond the need for “balance” with outright denialists), the “crib sheet” advocates that, on occasion, ‘contrarians and sceptics should be included within climate change and sustainability debates’ to argue the policies required and speed of climate change. I take issue with the latter when, as this document also notes, the consensus for the best-case scenario of warming is currently 2.7C above the pre-industrial average by 2100, if we commit to pledges in the 2015 Paris Agreement from which President Trump has since withdrawn. That is to say, our do-nothing scenario is a level of warming that the “crib sheet” says would cause over 50cm sea level rise, near-certain risk of coral bleaching and the destruction of marine ecosystems, and over one-fifth reduction in global wheat yields. Surely to represent the viewpoint of a sceptic who argued that, say, 1.2C warming was probable would be counterproductive and unscientific? While I would not advocate for apocalypse doomsayers to be represented, the BBC must understand climate change as a Pandora’s Box; that is, the higher we allow temperatures to get, the more likely it is that further warming feedback loops are triggered, and we stumble past points of no return.

The editorial policy dispels basic climate misgivings (‘Not all scientists think man-made climate change is real’ etc.) and has clearly had positive effects, such as the regular Climate Check segment on the BBC News Channel. But is still too much of a timid, introductory document for use by the gold-standard of British broadcasting, on the defining issue of our times. Journalists need to learn the science to avoid unnecessary qualifications (‘it is likely that…’). They shouldn’t be afraid to make connections across subject areas, between climate and immigration, agriculture, economics, healthcare, housing, sport; ultimately, extreme weather and warming temperatures will touch every facet of our lives. How many broadcasters have a Climate Editor? Perhaps they could mitigate logistical difficulties by establishing Climate desks within the newsroom: comparative and international in outlook, which educate viewers on the range of potential solutions to pursue at international, commercial, domestic and individual level.

Furthermore, I have not seen any guidance which addresses the elephant in the room: weather forecasts themselves. It is a (fairly pathetic) gripe of mine that every PSB devotes around 10% of their flagship news programmes to the forecast, yet at least 20% of that time is devoted to telling us what has already happened. This is prime real-estate for a survey of international trends and historical averages to frame the day’s weather in a useful climate context. In the mode of The Guardian in 2019, forecasts must also start to use the language of urgency.[4] If broadcasters can refer to the movement of a few dozen refugees across the Channel as a “migrant crisis”, there is no excuse in the impartiality department to reject the language of “climate crisis”. The weather bulletin is repeated in every prime-time broadcast by every PSB. It is probably seen by one-sixth of the UK population – upwards of ten million viewers – per day, especially with the increase of viewing under lockdown.[5] That is much more than the average David Attenborough documentary, and a wider swathe of the population. Hence there is no better way to promote, educate on and ultimately normalise the language of climate emergency than through the forecast.

The responsibility of PSBs is to inform and educate, as much as to entertain. Journalistic ignorance will breed public apathy, and eventually the nihilistic misconception that individuals can do nothing to avert climate catastrophe. As such, there must be a stronger sense of the stakes of the issue beyond the social media echo chambers inhabited by young people, Extinction Rebellion, the Green Party or the left-of-centre printed press. We live in a nation – for now – where broadcast news is trusted across the political spectrum. Compare this to the American experience without PSBs, where the revanchist language of climate denialism is still given fair treatment from MSNBC on the Left to Fox News on the Right. No presidential candidate has ever been asked a debate question about climate change (perhaps this will change in September). In fact, a 2012 report by press watchdog Media Matters showed that 40 times more media coverage in an 18-month period was given to the Kardashians than acidification of the oceans as a result of rising temperatures.[6] With such a parlous context in mind, we must exploit the uniting influence of our PSBs to make climate change an issue in which everyone can have a stake; a model for coverage in other nations. Broadcasters should be partial in favour of safeguarding the future of unborn generations.

Weeks such as we experienced in early August are not a passing anomaly, to enjoy unthinkingly before returning to normal. Our most prominent broadcasters must not become ensnared in this trap. They can balance their commitment to nonpartisan, high quality news coverage with a restructuring of their coverage of the climate crisis. Otherwise, the new normal becomes a world on fire, and we will have sleepwalked into it.

Notes
[1] Indeed, the unverified highest ever temperature of 56.7C was recorded at Furnace Creek in July 1913, but weather historians agree that the recording is 2-3C too high.
[2] See this Medium article which analyses how often “climate change” was mentioned in selected newspaper and online articles about extreme weather in 2018. The Guardian constituted over three quarters of the total mentions: Link
[3] Leo Hickman, ‘Exclusive: BBC issues internal guidance on how to report climate change’, Carbon Brief, 7th September 2018. Link
[4] Oliver Milman, ‘Guardian spurs media outlets to consider stronger climate language’, The Guardian, 24th May 2019. Link
[5] Charlotte Tobitt, ‘Coronavirus leads to “staggering demand” for trusted TV news’, PressGazette, 17th March 2020, for figures. Link
[6] Mark Hertsgaard and Kyle Pope, ‘The media are complacent while the world burns’, CJR, 22nd April 2019. Link

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Can Democrats avert the Trumpocalypse?


From: washingtonpost.com

Review: David Frum, Trumpocalypse: Restoring American Democracy (HarperCollins, 2020)

There are 99 days to go until the 2020 United States presidential election. Having privileged economic imperatives over public health, many states are suffering a surge in Covid-19 cases. Today, the national death toll will hit 150,000: by far the worst in the world. Federal agents in unmarked clothing are teargassing protestors and beating journalists in the eighth consecutive week of Black Lives Matter protests in Portland, Oregon. Yet behind the military-guarded White House fence, President Donald Trump is boasting to Fox News interviewer Chris Wallace about his ability to identify an elephant on an elementary-level competency test.

Forget the virus. At his first Covid-19 press conference on 13th March, Trump declared what David Frum describes as his presidential epitaph: ‘I don’t take responsibility at all.’ Trailing by 9 points in national polling, it seems that his Democratic challenger Joe Biden is poised to gather that responsibility. Biden’s strategy of keeping a low profile while the president commits self-sabotage is paying off handsomely. Trump is behind in every swing state from Florida to Pennsylvania, while Biden holds a paper-thin lead in Texas – a state which last voted Democrat in 1976.
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Figure 1. Result of the 2020 presidential election if it was held today.

Data from the FiveThirtyEight polling averages by state and background map from Wikipedia.

It is in this cautiously optimistic climate that David Frum’s searing meditation on the Trump presidency, Trumpocalypse: Restoring American Democracy, must be read. A Never Trump Republican who voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, the Canadian Frum coined the phrase “axis of evil” as a speechwriter for George W. Bush, and now dedicates his efforts to delineating what Democrats – assuming they can sweep the Presidency and the Congress – must do to reverse Trump’s corruption of the American political establishment.

Frum’s thesis that the election of this reality-TV millionaire was a symbol of a wider culture of greed, short-termism and instant gratification is detailed with a litany of woe. Trump has withdrawn America from the international stage; cosied up to Russia and North Korean dictators; delivered a tax cut for millionaires but no growth for the groups that won him the White House; and recently stymied his own administration’s response to Covid-19. He is an incompetent imitation of populist leaders in illiberal democracies from Brazil and the Philippines to Hungary and Poland. But the author’s discussion of Trump’s structural damage to American institutions, to its robust system of constitutional checks and balances, is most disconcerting. Frum posits that the country’s political apparatus might never recover from a second term of the “Trumpocalypse” and must be altered urgently to prevent further destruction.

The coming election

Joe Biden cannot stay silent, hunkered down in his Delaware basement forever. Media attention will turn to his Vice-Presidential choice – certainly a woman, and probably a Black woman – to be announced imminently. “Veep” nominees rarely change the race, but they inject fresh interest into an interminable presidential cycle (Sarah Palin in 2008) and broaden support for the ticket. Given Biden’s age – 78 on Inauguration Day – his running mate is likely to be the candidate in 2024 and de facto future leader of the party. Trump will probably attempt to cast the Democratic ticket in apocalyptic, racist terms to rile conservatives who, Frum argues, are constantly waiting at ‘five minutes to midnight’ for the breakdown of American society.

But can “sleepy Joe Biden” (a tame moniker by Trump’s standards) honestly be seen as a radical leftist in cahoots with BLM, desperate to Defund the Police and occasion a socialist takeover? Regardless of his running mate, Trump’s “culture war” attack lines are unlikely to stick to a fellow septuagenarian, blasé about political correctness. Biden is comfortable talking about race relations. Polling suggests that he leads the incumbent more convincingly here than on the economy, despite the damage wrought by Trump’s pandemic response.

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Is this the Democratic dream team? Most speculation suggests Joe Biden will choose an experienced congresswoman with strong connections to law enforcement, like California Senator Kamala Harris (pictured) or Florida representative and former Orlando police chief Val Demings. From: bloombergquint.com.

As Frum suggests, underhand, divisive methods seem the most plausible means for Trump to run his re-election campaign. He will condone disenfranchisement and cast aspersions on the validity of postal votes, convinced that Democratic cities do not represent the “real” America. The following scenarios play into Republicans' hands:

a. Voter suppression. As FiveThirtyEight Senior Politics Writer Clare Malone demonstrates in her genealogy of the Republican party’s relationship with African-American voters, partisan redistricting, suppression efforts and punitive voter ID laws have formed part of a concerted effort since the 1970s to double-down on a white constituency at the behest of minority support.[1]

Amid the pandemic, there is a real risk that this strategy continues – justifiable by public health necessity as much as partisan design. Many states do not have the resources to mail out ballots and count them in large numbers; they may provide insufficient polling stations for those already worried about in-person voting. This was seen in the Wisconsin presidential primary in April, where Democratic Governor Tony Evers’ executive order for an all mail-in election was rejected by the GOP-controlled legislature. In the Kentucky primaries in May, polling stations were cut by 95% to reduce social contacts. Such precautions privilege Republicans who are on average less concerned about the virus than Democrats. It is also known that BAME people are more likely to be affected by the virus, vote Democrat and tend to live in densely populated urban areas where there will be the fewest polling places per capita.

In other words, holding an election in a pandemic, without safeguards for those who wish not to vote in person, poses a triple bind for the Democrats. From a practical perspective, postal ballots will take longer to count and may not be declared for several days/ weeks after election night. This will make it easier for Trump to paint a conspiracy of illegality, as he did for Clinton’s millions of surplus votes in California and New York in 2016. Even if they are not illegal, Frum insinuates, they will seem to come from ‘people whose votes deservedly counted for less’ – of which more later.

b. Adept messaging. Trump’s Independence Day speech at Mount Rushmore suggested that the president intends to return to the well of “culture wars” and identity politics to eke out an election win. Like in 2016, he might double down on what historian Timothy Snyder has called the “Medium-Size lies” of illiberal regimes – too disparate to be called ideologies, but alternate realities with which Trump’s supporters engage much of the time.[2] These include the “Chinese virus”; various anti-immigrant sentiments; repeated assertions that the U.S. has ‘one of the lowest’ Covid-19 death rates; Trump’s brilliant economic numbers; or his handling of race relations (by brute, undemocratic force).

He could be more conciliatory, exploiting voters’ short-term memories by following public health advice and initiating a conventionally presidential response to the next three months of the virus. There is some new evidence of this approach from his Tuesday press conference extolling the benefits of masks, while on Thursday the President finally cancelled the Republican National Convention in Jacksonville, opting for a virtual setting. This comes in the aftermath of the disastrous, tone-deaf and medically reckless Tulsa rally on Juneteenth.

The reality, however, is that Trump cannot stick to a message and is bored by the requirements of a disciplined campaign. He will continue to provoke press harmful to his own side. He is trailing on most leadership polls and a traitor to the United States’ interests. Surely Biden will make capital from being the target of Trump’s attempted bribery of the Ukrainian President which got him impeached. More recently, the President seemed unmoved by the intelligence that Russia has been providing bounties for the Taliban to kill U.S. troops.

c. Republican Senators and Congressmen disavow Trump to save themselves. The House of Representatives may be doomed to Democratic control after the wave election of 2018, but the Republicans can afford to lose two seats and keep the Senate. Trump will go, but the apocalypse will be averted. The GOP are no strangers to the game of obstruct and delay, with House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell blocking President Obama’s domestic agenda from 2011-17.

The Senate map still looks tricky to defend: Republicans will almost certainly lose Arizona and Colorado, while Georgia, Iowa, Maine and North Carolina lean Democratic. However, Doug Jones’ seat in Alabama should be an easy gain for the GOP, given the bizarre circumstances of his special election in 2017 against the child molester Roy Moore.
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Figure 2. Result of the 2020 Senate election if it was held today. Darker colours represent gains, lighter colours holds.

Data from the FiveThirtyEight polling averages by state and background map from Wikipedia.


Surely Republicans can only hold the Senate if individuals distance themselves from Trump’s lead balloon? But as a plausible political strategy, this can only work for Susan Collins, the last moderate, once-popular Maine Senator, who eventually sold out to Trumpism after voting to confirm Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. No other Republicans up for election have any anti-Trump integrity.

The once-honourable party of Lincoln has allowed itself to be pillaged by an illiberal demagogue. Frum discusses the mentality of the scam victim: Trump is the great scammer who has missold a vision of America, but such is the pain of being seen as a fool that many voters would rather defend him and take the loss of money. In this parlance, the GOP establishment has been scammed as much as Trump’s voters, and is proving reluctant to admit it.


A new age of reform

Presuming they win, how should the Democrats capitalise? In Part II of Trumpocalypse, ‘A New Age of Reform’, Frum explains the overdue safeguards required to prevent a future demagogue from gaming American democracy. I will focus on his analysis, rather than speculate on Democratic priorities that will be decided after the (virtual) convention in August. Frum’s points are enlightening for their simplicity and appeal to middle-ground Americans’ sense of fairness, given that Democratic majorities will be inflated by ‘conservative-leaning people who want a more ethical and effective government.’ I have broken his points into what might be considered short-term fixes – requiring majorities in Congress and a flourish of the presidential pen – and longer-term theories on how to reverse the polarisation of American politics since the 1990s.

SHORT TERM

i. Compel the release of 3+ years of presidential candidates’ tax returns
For a president who directed $4.7m of Republican party funds into his personal resorts by mid-2019, the Supreme Court decision of 6th July ordering him to declare his tax returns is finally a victory for transparency. There should now, as Frum argues, be a congressional law to compel this for all presidential candidates. Future White Houses cannot become swamps of nepotism populated by the likes of Jared and Ivanka, Roger Stone and Paul Manafort. Frum could have paired his tax returns resolution with his rebuke to Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller’s tepid investigation (Mueller ‘did not allow himself to try’). Any candidate whose financial records were up for public scrutiny would not endorse Russian meddling in American elections.

ii. Abolish the Senate filibuster
The filibuster allows a minority of Senators to “talk out” a congressional bill of its allotted debate time. It was designed by the Founding Fathers to safeguard rights against the “tyranny of the majority” but has long proven detrimental to the cause of equality and progressive reform. It was exploited by Southern Democrats to delay the passage of epochal civil and voting rights bills in 1964-5. A supermajority of 60 Senators can overturn a filibuster, but in theory, it could still be used by 41 Republicans in rural states, representing as little as 11% of the U.S. population, to veto the interests of 89%. Abolition would be beneficial to both parties’ legislative agendas when controlling the Senate.

iii. Give statehood to the District of Columbia
As the seat of government institutions in the U.S., the Constitution granted Congress “exclusive jurisdiction” over the District of Columbia and it was not given the right to local government until 1973. Nearly 50 years on, the district of 900,000 people – overwhelmingly African-American – has no formal congressional voting rights. “New Columbia”, as Frum christens Washington D.C., should be granted full statehood and its guaranteed two Senators to right this historical aberration, and balance the increasingly Republican-skewed Senate. As stated above, since rural states are more numerous and more Republican, the Senate is becoming increasingly unrepresentative and the source of gridlocked government.

More broadly, the optics of Senate representation plays into a right-wing nationalist view of the “real” America of numerous red states, ignored by the multicultural milieu of the big blue cities. In 2016, Trump-supporting Breitbart News boasted that their candidate won 3,084 out of 3,141 counties with a ‘7.5 million popular landslide in [America’s] heartland’. In reality the count was 5:1 in Trump’s favour; 2626 to 487 – and Clinton won the far more populous, economically-vibrant counties. Still, this reinforces the sense that geographical area and the right type of people are more important than sheer population in representation.[3] Frum could have connected this with a quote from Congressman Matt Gaetz (R-FL) – a favourite of Trump – who decries ‘a worldview where you eat nothing but kale and quinoa’ against ‘those of us who cling to our Bibles and our guns and our fried foods and real America’.[4]
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Figure 3 (left). Counties won by Trump (red) and Clinton (blue) in the 2016 presidential election by geographical size. Source: Wikipedia.

Figure 4 (right). The same map adjusted for population size.
Source: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~mejn/election/2016/

iv. End partisan gerrymandering
Re-mapping, or gerrymandering, congressional districts to their advantage is another Republican tool to avoid the effort required to appeal beyond their white conservative base. Frum rightly suggests that this pernicious tool, historically utilised by both parties to devalue the vote, should be banned. The 2020 census is an opportune moment for a nonpartisan redrawing of district lines in the House of Representatives, undertaken by an independent commission.

Currently, only 7 states use independent commissions while individual state legislatures decide the district boundaries in 36 states.[5] As seen recently in North Carolina (2017), Pennsylvania (2018) and Ohio (2019), Republican state legislatures have fallen foul of court rulings that their partisan-drawn boundaries lead to inequities which penalise Democrats and foster voter apathy. In 2018, Republicans won at least three-quarters of seats in both North Carolina (10/13) and Ohio (12/16) on just 50.4% and 52% of the popular vote respectively.

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Figures 5 and 6. Current gerrymandered House of Representatives seats in North Carolina (left) and Ohio (right).

Source: http//:nationalmap.org/ for N.C. and http//:www.electiondefense.org/democracynews/2016/1/28/historic-ohio-voters-just-banned-gerrymandering-restoring-faith-in-democracy for Ohio

Thus far Pennsylvania has undertaken the independent redistricting ordered – North Carolina and Ohio will have to do so after November’s elections – and the results are stark. In 2016, Republicans won 13/18 House seats in the state on just 54% of the vote. In 2018, on the new boundaries, each party won 9 seats with Democrats leading the popular vote 55-45%. The result was not perfectly proportional but a vast improvement.

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Figures 7 and 8. Pennsylvania seats in the House of Representatives before (left) and after (right) 2018 court-ordered redistricting.

Source: http://www.pacourts.us/news-and-statistics/cases-of-public-interest/league-of-women-voters-et-al-v-the-commonwealth-of-pennsylvania-et-al-159-mm-2017

v. Modernise the Voting Rights Act
Redistricting is only half of the battle to give Americans reassurance that their vote matters. As Frum notes, ‘a two-hour queue deters voters as surely as the old methods of threat and intimidation’. The logistics of voting, for poorer and minority communities in particular, are indefensibly difficult.

In 2013, Voting Rights Act provisions that applied to mostly Southern states were struck down by the Supreme Court as unreflective of current conditions. The result has been a gradual, tacit infringement on those rights: purges from voter rolls; restrictions to voting options. The 2018 Georgia gubernatorial election was won narrowly by Republican Brian Kemp amid allegations that stringent voter ID laws had led to many minority votes being refused (for instance, if names were spelled or punctuated differently on ballots to ID cards). Provisions should also be extended to northern states unaffected by the original 1965 Voting Rights Act, as the examples of primaries held amid the pandemic demonstrate.[6] Frum’s Voting Rights Act review would expedite universal access to local polling stations (investment will be required to employ staffers and hire venues) and guarantee online or mail-in voting options beyond 2020. Pandemic or no pandemic, America needs voting access fit for the 21st century.

vi. Depoliticise law enforcement
This point has gained a particular urgency since the murder of George Floyd on 25th May. Frum’s emphasis predates calls to defund the police – a fraught, long-term project to be deliberated at state and local levels – but applies to the presidential power that, in recent months, has let Donald Trump use federalised troops as his own personal plaything: from the egregious photo stunt in Lafayette Square to suppression of Black Lives Matter protests in Portland, Seattle and other cites.

For Trump – as with any demagogue - loyalty to the person is more important than loyalty the office. Congress must legislate, as it did on war powers in the 1970s, to dilute presidential law enforcement powers to federalise and direct state troops. It should also legislate to guarantee that the military will enforce a peaceful transition of power should Trump lose in November – he has hinted several times that he might contest the result. Such is his degradation of the office that a squatter in the White House has become a distinct possibility.


LONG TERM
Frum’s proposals here are less specific but intend to show Democrats and Republicans policy areas where they should urgently find common ground. I have also added two of my own (iii and iv):

i. Neuter the immigration vs. healthcare debate
Frum identifies healthcare and immigration as crucial issues for a bipartisan rapprochement. His argument is salient with long term contexts in mind, like the discovery of a coronavirus vaccine, or the immigration of climate migrants: ‘If Democrats want to perpetuate their health-care reforms, they must do a better job of solidifying a sense of national belonging. If Republicans want to safeguard the border, they must offer a better deal to those living on the border’s American side’. He castigates Republicans for hypocrisy in challenging the “socialism” of Obamacare but championing Medicare for the elderly constituencies they represent. From a Canadian perspective, he understands the national pride instilled by a national health service, free at the point of need: a central part of the ‘better deal’ Republicans must be willing to accept.

However, Frum’s solution on immigration – only to allow entrants who fill a labour shortage – is superficial. He doesn’t get to the root of nativist Republican rhetoric or face the reality that most immigrants in Western nations are net givers, not takers. The bipartisan settlement he hopes for in healthcare is obstructed by vested interests in the multi-billion-dollar pharmaceutical industry. Frum’s diagnosis is correct – healthcare and immigration will be hot-button issues in coming decades – but the medication requires more thought.

ii. Collaborate on climate change as a national security threat
Climate change poses an existential threat to the social fabric of the U.S.; the climate migrants of the future will stoke Trumpian “culture wars” to greater extremes. Like Anatol Lieven in his recent book, Climate Change and the Nation State, Frum adroitly frames climate as a national security issue. Climate mitigation does not have to be the territory of leftists, bound up with solutions considered to endanger capitalism. It can be fought on ground more comfortable for Republicans: Trump’s former Secretary of Defense James Mattis spoke of protecting American borders by diverting some of America’s $750bn defence budget to invest in renewable energy solutions.

Climate realism will be necessary to augur a bipartisan consensus, starting with a reversal to Trump’s withdrawal from the 2015 Paris Agreement. But, unlike many of Frum’s generation, I am concerned that global warming has escalated too far for his “realistic” solutions: a carbon tax and carbon capture and storage (CCS). (I do, however, agree with him that safe nuclear energy is a path forward.) Carbon taxes are unlikely to disincentivise the enormous fossil fuel industry in a nation woefully under-resourced in public transportation. Changing the gas-guzzling American way requires far more ambition, while CCS technology is ill-conceived and wildly expensive. Frum is right that America must reassert the global leadership in climate abdicated by Trump, but it must be willing to listen to smaller innovators from Scandinavia to Costa Rica, which last year became the first country to switch purely to renewable energy. At least the “new normal” of home working and reticence to undertake air travel provides an opportunity to re-evaluate energy and climate needs.

iii. Expand the House of Representatives
Unlike the abolition of the Electoral College or expansion of the Senate, which would require a constitutional amendment, expanding the House of Representatives could be achieved by a simple congressional law. This would enhance the diversity of the body and encourage bipartisanship by bringing Members of Congress into a closer relationship with their constituents. It would also extend the case for a country-wide, nonpartisan redistricting commission to draw the boundaries. At present, the average House member represents 747,184 people, more than seven times more than the average British MP. Globally, the United States has the second smallest legislature for its population size after India.[7]

Using the freely-available Dave’s Redistricting App[8] – in which you can draw congressional districts by state, and receive useful analysis on their proportionality, competitiveness, and encouragement of minority representation – I have constructed a 750-member House of Representatives here. Any larger might be too unwieldy to function as a legislative body, but this nearly halves the representation deficit.[9] Based on 2012-16 election figures, my model yields 377 Democratic seats to 373 for the Republicans - suggesting a lack of partisan bias - of which 159 are “competitive” (decided by a margin of less than 10%). The lack of competitive seats is disappointing, but a symptom of the bias of First Past The Post politics and an increasing divide with Republicans dominating rural areas to Democrats dominating urban ones. Perhaps greater displays of bipartisanship could alleviate this.

iv. Enact the Equal Rights Amendment (ERA)
First passed by Congress in 1972, the Equal Rights Amendment would write sex discrimination into the U.S. Constitution for the first time, preventing a conservative reading of the document that reflects the “original intent” of the Founding Fathers, i.e. that women are second-class citizens. It would bring the U.S. into line with 76% of countries globally whose constitutions enumerate gender equality. For enactment, the ERA needed to be passed by 38 states (75% of the total) within a 7-year time limit, but right-wing forces defending the rights of mothers and families, such as Phyllis Schlafly’s Eagle Forum, scuppered the amendment 3 states short of this threshold. (For an inspiring yet infuriating dramatization of feminist politics in this period, I recommend the brilliant FX/ BBC series Mrs. America: a timely reminder that great movements are never built on ideological purity but unity, compromise and prioritisation.)

The ERA is particularly timely with the Trump presidency’s assault on female and LGBT+ rights. In January, Virginia became the 38th state to ratify the amendment – following Nevada (2017) and Schlafly’s home state of Illinois (2018). The Democrat-controlled House of Representatives has passed a resolution to waive the deadline for passage, which means – in theory – that only the Republican Senate stands against a 28th Amendment.[10]

There is little reason why this should be partisan territory; indeed, if Republicans want to remedy their disastrous voter gender gap, they must champion equal rights. The ERA is not an anachronism of second-wave feminism. Causes from pay equality and access to reproductive healthcare to domestic violence and sexual assault (a particular concern during lockdown) will be hastened by the final passage of the Amendment a half-century on.

* * *

Wednesday, 4th November will be a watershed for America’s dominant political parties. The scale of democratic and constitutional erosion wrought by President Trump, Frum argues, might prove irreversible if he is elected to a second term. But if he is defeated – especially by a large margin – scholars have argued that this could hasten an audacious new era in American politics.

Between his shock election win and inauguration in January 2017, political scientist Corey Robin wrote that Trump’s most suitable presidential analogue might be Jimmy Carter. In prognoses that maintain relevance three and a half years later, Robin suggests Trump is the last gasp of the conservative order initiated by Ronald Reagan in 1981, in the same way Carter – Reagan’s predecessor – was the final descendant of the New Deal, liberal legacy of Franklin D. Roosevelt.

[alternate text here]

For Robin, both Carter and Trump are “Disjunctive Presidents” who tried to shift their parties to save them at a moment of profound structural change:

these figures are too indebted to the regime to break with it. But the regime is too dissonant and fragmented to offer the resources these Presidents need to transform it. They find themselves in the most perilous position of all — hated by all, loved by none — and their administrations often occasion a new round of reconstruction. [11]

The statistics would suggest that this ‘new round of reconstruction’ is overdue. In 6 of the last 7 presidential elections, Republicans have ceased to win a majority of the popular vote (and yet triumphed 3 times due to the Electoral College). But Robin’s parallels have their limits: would-be President-elects Reagan and Biden inherit the office in vastly different contexts. Carter did not eviscerate democratic institutions and processes; abuse the office of the President for financial gain; or represent a wider illiberal strain in global politics. Nor did his tenure have as significant an impact on the courts as Trump’s nominees are likely to occasion for their life tenures. Carter did not have the chance to nominate a Supreme Court justice, but reactionary, right-wing stewardship of the courts at all levels will prove Trump’s enduring legacy. With the health of liberal beacon Ruth Bader Ginsburg in doubt, the President may have the chance to stack the Supreme Court 6-3 in favour of conservative justices before January 2021.

Beyond this, Trump’s personal sideshow should not detract from the damage of his inaction on issues economic and environmental, which could be catastrophic in the long term. For those of us who still respond to fact and evidence, the apocalypse Trump presages for conservatives in electing Biden is much more convincing when it is reversed.

Democrats cannot be complacent at this volatile time. Their focus first must be on allowing America’s constitutional apparatus – especially Congress – to function effectively, rebuild cross-party cooperation and prevent opposition on principle. Frum’s short-term fixes in these areas, as analysed, are illuminating and remarkable in their simplicity. He is right to identify healthcare, immigration and climate change as longer-term existential threats to the nation, which any rational politician would view as areas for bipartisan agreement. But his analysis is cursory; his solutions superficial. On climate, Frum is naively reliant on the potential impact of carbon taxes and CCS, rather than taking the left-wing ambition of a Green New Deal too seriously.

In addition, the question of what happens to Trump and the Republican party if the President is defeated hangs over Trumpocalypse. Like Gerald Ford, should Joe Biden afford his disgraced predecessor a presidential pardon to save him from criminal charges and heal the nation? Or are Trump’s crimes too egregious for conciliation? In this period of polarisation, moral retribution for the Democrats will look like the very cultural destruction that Trump warned Republicans they would generate.

To borrow from Winston Churchill, a Democratic victory in November will not be the beginning of the end for the Trumpian politics of carnage, conspiracy and cultural despair. But it will be the end of the beginning.


Notes
[1] Clare Malone, ‘The Republican Choice: How a party spent decades making itself white’, FiveThirtyEight, 24th June 2020. Link
[2] Credited in Anne Applebaum, Twilight of Democracy: The Failure of Politics and the Parting of Friends (Penguin, 2020), 36.
[3] Frum finds that in 2018, Democratic America contributed far more to GDP than the declining farmland on which Republican America is built, by on average $48.5 million per congressional district to $32.6 million. Trumpocalypse, 12. There is further useful analysis of this misrepresentation in The Telegraph, of all places. See Ashley Kirk and Patrick Scott, ‘That misleading Breitbart map explained: How Trump’s dominance across geography is a misrepresentation of the US election’, The Telegraph, 16th November 2016. Link
[4] Anne Applebaum demonstrates in her brilliant new book Twilight of Democracy that the illiberal playbook in Poland, Hungary and even the UK suggests rural towns populated by white voters are the lost and downtrodden nation. In Britain, she shows in Brexiteer rhetoric the London-based, Remainer elite are not true Englanders, while the Celtic fringe is a distraction. There is a sense of what the Russian essayist Svetlana Boym calls “restorative nostalgia” – attempts to rebuild a lost past based on the real England, or rural America, regardless of the truth of this image. See Applebaum, Twilight of Democracy, 73-75.
[5] These are Arizona, California, Hawaii, Idaho, Iowa, New Jersey and Washington. Iowa is slightly different in having independent mappers, but the state legislature votes on the maps created (i.e. the maps don’t have to be accepted. Seven states – Alaska, Delaware, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming – have only one, at-large congressional district, and therefore do not require districting commissions.
[6] Equal access to voting is as much a mirage as equal access to Covid-19 testing. As a sidebar, see the excellent infographic study conducted by FiveThirtyEight across conurbations from Los Angeles to Houston on the access to coronavirus testing. The correlation between white neighbourhoods and ease of access is stark. ‘Want a COVID-19 Test? It’s Much Easier To Get In Wealthier, Whiter Neighbourhoods’, FiveThirtyEight, 22nd July 2020. Link
[7] For a full comparison see Dylan Matthews, ‘The case for massively expanding the US House of Representatives, in one chart’, Vox, 4th June 2018. Link
[8] See https://davesredistricting.org/maps#
[9] The FiveThirtyEight website includes a simpler model for redistricting all states, based on certain input criteria like proportionality, compactness, competitiveness, or privileging minority representation. See ‘The Atlas of Redistricting’, FiveThirtyEight, 25th January 2018. Link I decided to make my own because a) the model does not let you expand the number of districts, b) I love maps and c) lockdown has given me far too much free time.
[10] The legal ramifications of waiving the deadline may prove more challenging, however, which is why I classed this under long-term. For more information on the history and context of the ERA, see, for instance, Robin Bleiweis, ‘The Equal Rights Amendment: What You Need To Know’, Center for American Progress, 29th January 2020. Link
[11] Corey Robin, ‘The Politics Trump Makes’, n+1 Magazine, 11th January 2017. Link

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Like Dominic Cummings, Novak Djokovic took the public for fools – and seems unlikely to face the consequences


From: https://indianexpress.com/article/sports/tennis/novak-djokovic-adria-tour-covid-hotspot-spoilsport-6471522/

Tennis had its Dominic Cummings moment this week, when four Top 50 male players tested positive for Covid-19 after playing in Novak Djokovic’s Adria Tour. This series of exhibition tournaments, held in Belgrade, Serbia and Zadar, Croatia – where they were abandoned on Sunday – turned from an expression of goodwill, raising funds to fight the pandemic, to a completely avoidable nightmare that set off virus outbreaks in both countries. Hubris governed a tour where social distancing was ignored, stadiums were filled to capacity and some of the ATP’s most tactile players were given free rein on the basketball court and in nightclubs. Grigor Dimitrov, visibly ailing in a match on Saturday, flew home to Monte Carlo before taking a test revealing him positive and symptomatic for Covid-19. Borna Coric, Victor Troicki and Novak Djokovic himself also tested positive without symptoms, with Djokovic similarly willing to carry his disease across international boundaries before deigning to take a test. At least his competitors, shaken by Dimitrov’s revelation, waited in Zadar to test themselves before fleeing the scene of the wreckage.

This arrogance reveals the danger of bringing back international sport amid a novel pandemic and, like Dominic Cummings’s trip to Durham, suggests the existence of an elite – political or athletic – who need not concern themselves with trivial public health measures. Cummings contravened lockdown rules, but likely infected few. The reckless administration of the Adria Tour may have caused the infection of thousands of spectators, many of whom will be symptomatic and pass the disease on. The official numbers speak for themselves: having brought the pandemic under control in mid-May, Serbia reported 137 cases today and Croatia 95. Croatia has reimposed a quarantine for visitors from neighbouring Balkan states. The source of the outbreak is contested – Dimitrov may have been the “super spreader” introducing the disease from Bulgaria or the United States – but ultimately it was Djokovic who organised and set the breezy tone for the tour. It was probably a matter of if, not when, the virus would emerge in such circumstances.

Like Cummings, Djokovic needs to be rebuked – removed from his position as President of the ATP Player Council, at least – to reinforce the magnitude of the public health crisis caused by his Adria Tour. The Serb has expressed his sorrow for the infection caused, but his statement of Tuesday suggests that organising the event with a ‘pure heart and sincere intentions’ – rather than social distancing – excuses his irresponsibility. And, like Cummings, it seems unlikely that he will face further sanctions. Djokovic has been a popular leader of the Player Council, advocating for better remuneration of players ranked outside the Top 100 (although his attention has strayed during the pandemic). It would require a majority of the 12-player board to replace him: a momentous, political move for a council containing both Rafael Nadal and Roger Federer. Djokovic’s online fan base, or #NoleFam, already regard the journalistic pile-on as a conspiracy engineered by supporters of his great rivals. The toxic world of social media echo chambers, anti-truth fervour and the decline of conventional wisdom would have it that Djokovic escapes this unscathed.

Novak Djokovic has always had an on-again, off-again, relationship with science. As commentator Mary Carillo warned on MSNBC yesterday, ‘He's one of so many people in this world – and especially in our country [the US], it seems – who think that science is just another opinion.’ In 2010, having suffered a series of physical breakdowns on court, Djokovic took a consultation involving a piece of bread rested on his arm – which felt weak in consequence – that inspired him to cut out gluten and take up the plant-based diet he follows with such great results to this day. But the success of this evidence-free reasoning was fluke, rather than design; Djokovic’s penchant for spirituality led in 2017 to his hiring a “mental guru”, Pepe Imaz, to teach “the power of lengthy lungs” and “quantum theory”. Unsurprisingly, his period with Imaz coincided with poor results by Djokovic’s standards.

Since the onset of Covid-19, the Serb’s naïve acceptance of fringe “medical” beliefs has strayed from the idiosyncratic to the dangerous. First came Djokovic’s contention that he would probably not take a vaccine if it was required to return to the tour. Perhaps this was an expression of caution in the face of a novel disease, but his later hosting of several Instagram Live sessions with Chervin Jafarieh, an entrepreneur – if the spirit of the word extends to con-artists who charge $50 a bottle for homeopathic water – would suggest that the world #1 is a full-on anti-vaxxer. With Jafarieh, Djokovic discussed “self-mastery”: a capacious title covering such nonsense as how the power of “gratitude” can change the molecular structure of food and purify dirty water. (Mary Carillo: ‘Try telling that to the people of Flint, Michigan.’) Meanwhile, his wife Jelena was busy sharing the conspiracy that 5G masts transmit coronavirus. For a couple who treat science as a game and think witch doctors might provide interesting viewing for 7.3 million Instagram followers, the catastrophic Adria Tour error seems unsurprising.

The impact of Djokovic’s actions on legions of diehard fans makes it so important that he is sanctioned after the Adria Tour blunder. We cannot allow the narrative from Djokovic’s father that Dimitrov was the virus carrier at fault; it has already been rebuked by the Serb’s perennial critic, Nick Kyrgios. The Serbian and Croatian authorities must be questioned for failing to monitor the event, but it is not their fault for allowing the tour, in good faith, to proceed. Nor is it a reasonable excuse – from the #NoleFam – that some athletes will inevitably get Covid-19 if sports restart before a vaccine, making the Adria Tour proof of an unavoidable reality. Dozens of Premier League footballers have tested positive for Covid-19, but self-isolated and prevented a wider outbreak. Unblinkered loyalty to a champion who stands underappreciated in the eyes of many cannot mask Djokovic’s egregious flouting of public health restrictions amid a pandemic. Social media may not reflect reality, but the doubling-down I have seen to defend Djokovic – notably on Twitter – has reached Trumpian levels.

If tennis is to survive this pandemic, in reputation and financially, Djokovic cannot head the Player Council. The American No. #225 Noah Rubin has questioned his continued tenure, having been critical of Djokovic’s decision to play basketball with Adria Tour compatriots rather than attend a Zoom call on the US Open and future income status of Top 400 players. The remaining 11 council members, who have the ultimate power to replace Djokovic, are yet to speak out on the issue, despite reports of growing discontent within the ATP. Perhaps this situation will change, but it seems likely that such a decision would have to be made unanimously to prevent appearances of factionalism that could further weaken tennis’ reputation. Heavyweights Federer and Nadal, while members of the council, are habitually reticent in tennis politics. During lockdown they have participated in a botched PR effort to take credit for the idea of an ATP-WTA merger (first proposed by Billie Jean King in 1973) rather than serious discussions about the logistical future of the sport. As such, it seems likely that without a groundswell against Djokovic, he will remain like Dominic Cummings – in post: an exemplar of the out-of-touch establishment that has seemed all too real for his mortal colleagues since March.

As Andy Murray noted yesterday at the Battle of the Brits – an indoor event, devised by his brother, with rigorous pandemic measures in place – Djokovic’s tour was ‘not a good look for tennis… maybe this has put the US Open in doubt’. The measures imposed by the United States Tennis Association so as not to cancel their annual event are stricter than those in Balkan countries: Murray conceded, ‘no fans for a start’. Yet the Adria Tour raised the question of whether players can be trusted to isolate in hotel rooms between matches, which is a requisite for the US Open to function. Should a player foray into midtown Manhattan, contract the virus and pass it on, the whole tournament might have to be cancelled and the USTA itself would sit on the verge of liquidation. Should they consider banning attendees of the Adria Tour? This would be extreme, but future ATP and WTA events may have to consider draconian measures to ensure safe tournaments, with adverse effects on privacy, coaching access and mental health.

It is too early to tell whether this error of judgment has humbled Djokovic and led him to consider his pandemic-resistant worldview. He concedes that the Adria Tour was held too soon, but the key point is that it was held in an imaginary, virus-free world, disregarding public health. The tour was an extension of his personal sense of infallibility, as a 17-time Grand Slam champion: a mental and physical specimen. I’m not convinced that he has lost it.

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